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An announcement from IBM and its research partners has me wondering if science will someday make the smart grid unnecessary. I was recently on a panel at an Edison International leadership off-site. CEO Ted Craver asked me if demand would grow at historical levels; or if a combination of a slowing economy and growing efficiency would keep load growth flat.
. I voted for continued growth, albeit at slightly lower levels. Historically, our ability to invent new ways to use electricity has always outpaced our ability to be more efficient. Give us more efficient refrigerators and we buy bigger ones; or keep the old inefficient one to run in the garage; or buy an additional under counter model for the family room; or all three, while also getting ourselves a monster big screen TV. |
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But now IBM says it is teaming with an EU-funded consortium to lower the energy consumption of electronic devices by an order of magnitude. The group says it hopes to combine tunnel field effect transistors (TFETs) with semiconducting nanowires to create a “zero-watt PC.” And to do it in 36 months. And then to share the research so manufacturers can build gadgets that need only tiny sips of electricity when operating, and virtually nothing when in sleep mode.
Imagine what would happen to electricity demand if every device – every computer, every server, every cash register, every cell phone – suddenly used 1/10 the power. The International Energy Agency says electronic gear accounts for 15% of household electricity consumption. So what happens to your carefully crafted load forecasts if that amount drops by a factor of 10?
Until now, humankind has spent the bulk of its brainpower figuring out new ways to use electricity. And we have gotten very good at it. I call it the "electrification of everything." Combine cheap microprocessors with cheap motors with cheap microwaves and cheap lasers, and you can understand why 60% of America's gross domestic product is now directly dependent on electricity. That is up from a mere 20% in 1950 (Manhattan Institute, see chart below).
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Now we are asking our smartest minds to figure out new ways to cut electricity consumption. If we get those breakthroughs, it could turn current forecasts upside down. And that's before considering the impact of possible breakthroughs in areas such as storage and solar PV.
Where do you sit? Will our ability to invent new uses for electricity outpace our ability to reduce the consumption of those devices? Use the QuickPoll to record your vote. And jump over to the SmartGridNewTalk technology forum to continue the discussion.
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